As calm as the presidential campaign is here in Fort Chicago, the battles are raging just across our borders in both Wisconsin and Indiana.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinelreports that in a new CNN/Time poll out this morning, Barack Obama leads John McCain 51% to 46% in Wisconsin. (John Kerry eeked out a win in Wisconsin in 2004 by 11,000 votes.)
In Indiana, a new poll out this morning by a local TV station shows the race tied at 46 percent, while the same CNN/Time poll reporting Wisconsin results gives McCain a 51 percent to 46 percent lead. Republican presidential candidates have won Indiana since 1968.
Let’s take a gander at both our neighbors, starting with Wisconsin.
Barack Obama barely almost eeked out a primary victory in Indiana over Hillary Clinton, thanks to the returns from Gary. The state is still in play – the Real Clear Politics average has McCain up 47.8 percent to 45.4 percent – but the Obama campaign has an advantage in its ability to turn out ground forces from Illinois, where they won’t be needed, by simply driving them in across the border.
That’s the idea behind this e-mail appeal sent out by the Obama campaign today. Note the mandatory references to “pundits, naysayers and cynics” that David Axelrod seems to have mandated be included in every e-mail appeal, as well as a reference to how much money John McCain and the GOP are pouring into the campaign – as if Obama’s pockets aren’t beyond stuffed.
I’ve got a lot of fun stuff about Indiana in my Beachwood Reporter column today. Head over there, then come back here. I’ll have some new posts this afternoon.
Jeffrey Toobin on CNN has invoked Chicago’s infamous political culture about a half-dozen times by now in discussing his disgust with the absence of any vote totals from Lake County, Indiana, as of 10:30 p.m.
“With Hillary Clinton’s statewide lead under 40,000, the pending results from Lake County loom large.
“While Clinton reportedly led voting in cities like Hammond, Whiting and East Chicago, Gary Mayor Rudy Clay is indicating a huge margin in favor of Obama in his city.
“‘It’s very lopsided,’ Clay said, pointing to a hand-written list of precinct results.
According to his numbers, in most districts Clinton’s turnout in the city of Gary was near non-existent. One district saw 126 voters turn out for Obama, while only four voted for Clinton.
Says Clay: “The Gary people took care of business.”
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From the Washington Post: “In March, Clay predicted the race would come down to Gary, telling the Northwest Indiana and Illinois Times that tonight on CNN, ‘They are going to point at Indiana and say Hillary Clinton is leading by one point but Gary ain’t come in yet.’”
I went looking for Politico’s county-by-county map of the Indiana vote and found yet another example of the Obama campaign’s savvy Internet advertising strategy. They’re everywhere.
Here’s Obama’s closing commercial. Note that the ad quotes a New York Times editorial criticizing Clinton without acknowledging that the Times has endorsed her. In fact, editorial page editor Gail Collins said on television today that she hasn’t seen anything in the campaign to make her believe that Obama’s purported theory of leading from some higher form of discourse would be more effective than Clinton’s street-fighting approach to getting things done. Ironically, it’s also a negative ad attacking negative politics.
And other questions in the wake of Barack Obama’s loss in Pennsylvania last night.
1. How low is the candidate of hope and change willing to go?
“In the two weeks leading up to the Indiana primary, a Democratic strategist familiar with the Obama campaign said aides are likely to turn to the controversies of Bill Clinton’s White House years – Hillary Clinton’s trading cattle futures, Whitewater and possibly impeachment,” the Washington Postreports.
“[Obama campaign manager David] Plouffe would not say the campaign planned to address that period, but seemed open to the possibility in the future: ‘The Republicans certainly are going to look at those issues, the Clinton finances, the record issues. We have chosen not to go there.’”
Division Street is NBC Chicago’s blog about Chicago news and politics from the perspective of Steve Rhodes, a 20-year veteran of the newspaper and magazine world and more recently, the proprietor of the Chicago news and culture review, The Beachwood Reporter.
Barack Obama 
Jeffrey Toobin on CNN has invoked Chicago’s infamous political culture about a half-dozen times by now in discussing his disgust with the absence of any vote totals from Lake County, Indiana, as of 10:30 p.m.
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And other questions in the wake of Barack Obama’s loss in Pennsylvania last night.
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